The reason why the Denver Nuggets are favorites for the championship (beyond Nikola Jokic)

The Denver Nuggets - Los Angeles Clippers series is shaping up to be the most enticing postseason matchup to date. With two games going down to the wire and both teams playing with urgency from the get-go, it's clear they are aware that even the slightest detail can tip the scales between evenly matched teams. The Nuggets entered the series under a cloud of uncertainty. A late-season slump led to the dismissal of coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth. This upheaval raised doubts about their postseason capability. The biggest question mark surrounding this team's championship viability was their poor defense throughout the regular season, ranking 21st in defensive efficiency, allowing 115.1 points per 100 possessions.

One of the main issues was the lackluster performance of Nikola Jokic for much of the season. To be fair, this was primarily due to the added offensive burden he had to bear. Defensive stalwarts like Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun had disappointing defensive seasons, with the former battling multiple injuries, while the latter seemingly couldn't replicate his defensive production coming off the bench as a starter. It seemed unlikely that they could make such a drastic turnaround in the postseason and prove that the Nuggets have championship-caliber defense. However, in the playoffs, the Nuggets have improved their defensive rating to 110.3.

In the opening quarter of the first game, it seemed like nothing had changed: the Nuggets' defense was struggling as James Harden and Ivica Zubac repeatedly exploited them with pick-and-rolls. However, magically, after that, this team seems to have completely transformed, showcasing the best defense they have ever played. All the players who were disappointments for the Nuggets appear completely rejuvenated, offering an unprecedented level of effort compared to the regular season.

While Jokic is unlikely to win the MVP this season, partly due to his inconsistent defensive effort throughout the year. Fortunately, though, it appears he has saved his energy to give his utmost on that end of the floor in the playoffs. Though he will never be Denver's primary defender, his ability to stay steady, utilize his smarts, and avoid being a liability has had a significant impact and is essential for this defensive system to work.

Denver's scheme relies on Jokic stepping out to pressure ball handlers in pick-and-roll situations, minimizing his weaknesses, especially rim protection, while amplifying his strengths: quick hands, surprising short-distance quickness, and elite rebounding. This system demands significant effort, requiring Jokic to step out to the perimeter and then recover quickly to the roller, having to use his strength to negate the advantageous position the opposing player gained by Jokic stepping out. While the effort needed for this system to function wasn't frequently seen during the regular season, it has been a completely different story in the playoffs. Jokic has helped Denver deliver consistently strong defensive performances. However, in the end, he is just a cog in a well-oiled machine that requires standout players to be effective.

Gordon's regular season was disappointing, marred by injuries and inconsistencies that never allowed him to find a good rhythm. His defense, in particular, was a cause for concern, casting doubts on whether his best years were behind him. But since the playoffs began, Gordon has regained his top form on both ends of the court. He provides a constant offensive threat and has the challenging task of being the primary defender on Kawhi Leonard. The mental lapses and frequent falls that plagued him during the regular season seem to be a thing of the past.

A persistent criticism of Gordon is that in the second game, he often allowed low-resistance switches that frequently left Jamal Murray guarding Leonard, largely allowing the Clippers' star to have his monstrous performance. Particularly, Kawhi has shot a perfect 10-for-10 while being defended by Murray in this series. But if the biggest critique of his performances is that hardly anyone can contain opposing stars like he does, then it reflects the incredible value he has brought to his team. However, an elite defender alone is usually not enough; Denver's championship core heavily relied on two defensive stoppers in Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The Nuggets and AG desperately need a complementary defensive partner to share responsibilities.

The Nuggets Defense

The decision to let go of veteran Caldwell-Pope in the offseason was heavily criticized. The Nuggets placed their trust in Braun, a move many deemed risky. Could Braun maintain his offensive output? Would his defensive impact translate into starting minutes? Could he fill KCP's role as a secondary DHO (Dribble Hand Off) option for Nikola Jokic?

The answers, during the regular season, were mixed. Braun posted a career-best scoring average and developed a strong chemistry with Jokic, especially in transition situations, but at the expense of his defense. So far in the playoffs, however, he has returned to his past defensive excellence, combining athleticism and great communication skills to be a leader on that end of the floor. Additionally, unlike KCP, Braun's physique permits seamless defensive switches with Gordon because while not as tall or strong as AG, his superior quickness and leaping ability have made him an effective defensive matchup even against physical wings like Leonard. The bet on Braun is looking increasingly sound.

Another young player making waves is Peyton Watson. His playing time - or lack thereof - was a point of contention between former GM Calvin Booth and coach Michael Malone. Watson's raw talent and defensive potential are undeniable, but there are still questions about his decision-making and limited offensive skills. Both sides are understandable. Watson is an athletic phenomenon with defensive potential, so it makes sense for him to play more to develop. However, he continues to make many mental errors and lacks basketball IQ, making him a liability in some games.

Nevertheless, Watson has impressed early in the series. In the first game, the lineup featuring him, Gordon, and Braun, although offensively clunky, was defensively dominant. Watson may not be ready for a consistent role yet, but his impact in spurts is already evident. His energy and versatility off the bench are reminiscent of Braun's emergence during the 2023 playoffs. Ironically, it could turn out that both Booth and Malone were right to some extent. Watson has undeniable talent; he just needed more guidance from Malone to become a steady contributor. If they had met halfway, both would have come out satisfied.

Heading into the playoffs, Denver's defense was considered the team's Achilles' heel. But the Nuggets have shown they are capable on that end of the floor through grit and tactical discipline. Particularly, during their 2023 championship, they rose from 15th in the regular season to fourth in the playoffs. A similar leap could be possible this year. If this level of defense is sustained, Denver will be a serious threat to reclaim the title.

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