"Revolution in the NBA? Data on free throws predicts a crucial change"

The NBA is undergoing a silent but profound change in the middle of January. Free throws are disappearing, and with them, a significant part of the scoring that had defined the offensive rhythm of the league in the early months of the season. The trend is so pronounced that it has reignited an old debate: has officiating changed without formal notice?

According to pbpstats.com data, free throw attempts per 100 possessions have decreased from 26.1 in October to 21.7 in January, a reduction of nearly 20%. The impact is direct and tangible: games are averaging about eight points less than just a few months ago.

The extent of the phenomenon was exposed on Saturday night in Boston. Jaylen Brown attacked the rim 23 times against the San Antonio Spurs, the highest number for any NBA player that day. The result was as striking as it was disconcerting: zero free throw attempts.

Boston Celtics only attempted four free throws in the entire game, the second-lowest figure in franchise history. After the four-point loss, Brown did not shy away from expressing his frustration.

"I'll take the fine at this point. I thought tonight was ridiculous," Brown said after the game. "The inconsistency is crazy. Fine me."

The league reacted swiftly. Brown was fined $35,000, becoming the latest player penalized this season for publicly criticizing officiating, alongside Dillon Brooks and Marcus Smart.

Increasing Tensions between Referees and Players

Discontent is not limited to players. In recent days, three head coaches have also been fined by the league office for questioning officiating decisions. The most tense incident occurred last week when Steve Kerr had to be physically restrained from referee Brian Forte after being ejected in a Warriors game.

The disciplinary message is clear, but it has not silenced doubts.

The decrease in scoring has had consequences beyond the court. Sportsbooks, a key economic partner of the league, are trying to decipher what is happening with officiating.

During January, bets on unders have cashed out a surprising 64.7% of the time, according to Odds Shark data. Normally, point totals are evenly split between over and under. "We're printing (money), haha," confessed a veteran professional bettor to Yahoo Sports after detecting the trend in advance.

Sportsbooks, usually accurate in line adjustments, are falling significantly short night after night.

Numbers Confirming the Change

Data supports the widespread feeling. So far in January, there have been nine games where a team ended with single-digit free throws, matching the combined total of November and December.

In contrast, during October, there were eight games where a team shot 40 or more free throws, while only two games ended with fewer than ten attempts from the line.

Interestingly, other offensive indicators remain stable. The two-point field goal percentage has barely changed month by month. Three-point shooting accuracy has slightly decreased, from 35.5% to 34.7%, but not enough on its own to explain the overall scoring drop.

Where a drastic change is observed is in fouls on outside shots. The percentage of fouls called on three-point attempts has dropped 26% from October to January. Players like Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, and Keyonte George, who had drawn 38 fouls on three-pointers before January, have only received one since New Year's.

According to several coaches and executives consulted, the NBA has not issued any official memorandum notifying of a change in officiating criteria. However, some team analysis departments have already presented internal reports to coaches and executives, warning about the new trends.

This would not be an isolated case. In early March 2024, the league experienced a similar situation when scoring drastically dropped following a sudden reduction in free throws awarded.

A month later, Commissioner Adam Silver publicly acknowledged that adjustments had been made. "I think at the beginning of the season, there was a feeling that offensive players had too much of an advantage," said Silver after the board of governors' meeting. "We made some adjustments along the way."

Today, without official confirmation but with numbers speaking for themselves, the NBA faces the same question: is this the new officiating standard or just a temporary phase? Meanwhile, free throws continue to disappear... and the league scores less and less.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, ¿Revolución en la NBA? El dato sobre tiros libres que anticipa un cambio crucial