Analysis | Numbers don't lie: LeBron James is a stain on the Los Angeles Lakers

The recent performance of Los Angeles Lakers without LeBron James has reopened an uncomfortable yet inevitable debate around the superstar's figure. The team has won their last three games convincingly in the absence of the veteran forward, including impressive victories against competitive rivals like the New York Knicks and the Minnesota Timberwolves. While it may seem like a temporary coincidence, the season's numbers call for a deeper analysis of James' current impact on the team's structure.

As explained by Hoopshype, in the current season, the Lakers hold a record of 14 wins and 7 losses when LeBron doesn't play. Extrapolated to a full season, that pace would equate to around 56 victories. On the other hand, with James on the court, the team has a 26-18 record, projecting to approximately 49 wins over 82 games. The difference isn't enormous but is significant for a player who has been synonymous with immediate positive impact for two decades.

Another relevant statistic is the so-called swing rating. This measures the point differential per 100 possessions when a player is on the court. With LeBron, the Lakers have been outscored by 2 points per 100 possessions this season. This isn't an isolated phenomenon; the previous year saw an even worse figure with a negative differential of 5.3. It's at least noteworthy that a team is consistently outscored with one of the greatest stars in history on the floor.

The analysis of lineups reveals even more surprising conclusions. The lineup comprised of LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Deandre Ayton, and Rui Hachimura shows a -3.9 plus/minus per game. Based on data available since 2007-08, when detailed lineup statistics began being recorded, this is the worst starting five for LeBron in 19 years.

To provide historical context, the prior worst lineup with James was during his first stint in Cleveland, featuring Joe Smith, Sasha Pavlovic, Delonte West, and Anderson Varejao, with a -2.8. Even that group, surrounded by players evidently less talented than the current Lakers roster, performed better than the current lineup.

What explanations can be found for this phenomenon? One of the most plausible theories pertains to how the pieces fit together. The current lineup brings together three high-level ball handlers: LeBron, Doncic, and Reaves. All three are more effective when the offense runs through them, potentially leading to offensive redundancies and rhythm issues. Throughout James' career, he has rarely coincided with two primary creators of this caliber simultaneously. In Miami, he shared the spotlight with Dwyane Wade, but Chris Bosh operated more as a finisher off the ball. In his return to Cleveland, Kyrie Irving was the primary perimeter creator, with Kevin Love serving in a complementary role. Even during the 2020 championship with the Lakers, Anthony Davis took on more of a finishing role than a playmaking one.

Moreover, the James-Doncic-Reaves trio doesn't particularly excel defensively either. When a lineup has defensive limitations and, at the same time, needs to distribute many offensive possessions among multiple creators, collective balance becomes challenging.

There is also another inevitable possibility: the passage of time. LeBron James is now 41 years old and has accumulated over 60,000 minutes in the NBA excluding playoffs and international competitions. His advanced metrics indicate a certain decline. His BPM (3.1) is the lowest since his rookie season, while his WS/48 (0.118) represents the second-worst mark of his entire career.

Definitive Decline?

Nevertheless, it would be premature to conclude that the decline is definitive. Over two decades, James has shown a unique ability to reinvent himself. If he improves his outside shooting—currently around 31% on threes—and adjusts his role towards more off-ball play, the Lakers' starting lineup could discover a different balance.

Recent history advises against ever dismissing LeBron. But for the first time in many years, the numbers suggest that the collective fit of his team poses more questions than certainties.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Análisis | Los números no mienten: LeBron James es una lacra para Los Angeles Lakers