Oklahoma City Thunder 2026/27: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander seeks to reclaim the NBA throne

The Oklahoma City Thunder are once again among the leading contenders for the championship in the 2026/27 season. The team, led by Mark Daigneault, boasts one of the most complete rosters in the NBA, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the winner of the last two MVP awards, as their main argument for aiming high. Their continued offensive prowess and the extraordinary defensive performance of the team provide sufficient reasons to maintain very high expectations.

However, winning again will not be an easy task. The Thunder enter the new season with some important changes in their rotation and face a crucial challenge that could impact their aspirations: finding solutions against the San Antonio Spurs, who have become their most uncomfortable rival.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the starting point 

Few teams can start a season with an offensive reference like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Canadian has won two consecutive MVP awards and represents Oklahoma City's main guarantee to maintain their ability to compete against any rival. His presence allows the Thunder to have a player capable of taking on responsibilities in crucial moments and sustaining the attack when the game gets tough.

Around him, the return of Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell in favorable physical conditions is particularly significant. Both missed games during the Western Conference Finals against San Antonio, and their absence limited the team's offensive options in a series that was decided by narrow margins.

Williams, selected to one of the All-NBA teams, is a key player for his ability to create advantages and complement Gilgeous-Alexander. Mitchell, for his part, has established himself as one of the revelations of the roster, providing another option for creation from the perimeter. With both available, Oklahoma City has more resources to avoid excessive reliance on their main star.

Additionally, the Thunder have finished among the top six teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency for three consecutive seasons. This consistency demonstrates that their performance does not rely solely on Gilgeous-Alexander's individual efforts, but also on a system that has maintained its effectiveness over time.

A historic defense with Holmgren and Hartenstein

If the offense offers guarantees, the defense is Oklahoma City's main differentiating element. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein form an interior pair that combines rim protection, the ability to contest opponents' shots, and resources to defend various situations.

The Thunder allowed nine fewer points per 100 possessions than the NBA average during the previous season. According to data from PBP Stats cited in the reference analysis, this is the largest difference from the league average in the last 30 years.

This figure reflects the magnitude of the team's defensive performance. Oklahoma City not only limits opponents' scoring but has built a structure capable of sustaining that advantage over time. The presence of Holmgren and Hartenstein in the paint is essential for perimeter players to apply pressure and disrupt ball movement.

The challenge will be to maintain that level after a partial renewal of the rotation. The departures of Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins require a redistribution of minutes and responsibilities. Dort was known for his defensive work against top rival playmakers, while Joe provided outside shooting and Wiggins offered versatility from the bench.

Missing three players of that profile does not necessarily mean a setback, but it does require other roster members to respond immediately.

Cason Wallace and the young players face a decisive opportunity

The main alternative to cover Dort's departure is Cason Wallace. Selected to one of the NBA's defensive teams, the wing is ready to take on a more significant role and bring much of the intensity that characterized the traded player.

On the perimeter, Oklahoma City has other interesting options. Alex Caruso and Jared McCain are part of a rotation that also includes Mitchell, while Kenrich Williams can help cover various positions. The question will be determining how much these players can contribute without overly increasing the burden on the main starters.

The depth of the roster will also depend on the development of its young players. Rookies Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz have made a good impression during the preseason, while Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber represent other development options.

All of them could help maintain the competitiveness of the second unit, although they still need to prove they can translate their promising performances into official games and respond against top-level opponents.

This is one of the most important uncertainties of the project. Oklahoma City has shown it can compete with a deep roster, but having young talent is one thing, and getting that talent to produce reliable minutes in playoff series where every possession has enormous value is another.

The Spurs, the major obstacle to winning

The main argument against the Thunder has a name: San Antonio Spurs. The team led by Victor Wembanyama won eight of the 12 matchups between the two last season, a statistic that reflects Oklahoma City's difficulties in finding answers against this rival.

The Western Conference Finals confirmed that trend. The Thunder pushed the series to the limit, with a final game that remained open until the last minutes, but they were unable to resolve the problems posed by the Texas team.

Chet Holmgren was one of the players who struggled most against Wembanyama. The matchup between these two bigs is shaping up to be one of the keys to the season, as the Frenchman has proven to be a particularly challenging matchup for the Oklahoma City player.

Holmgren will need to find better solutions to compete against Wembanyama's size, agility, and defensive impact. It is not just about improving his individual matchups but also finding collective strategies to mitigate the impact of San Antonio's center.

For the Thunder, this challenge is important beyond the regular season. If both teams meet again in the playoffs, the ability to adjust their approach against the Spurs could make the difference between another disappointment and another chance to fight for the championship.

Can Oklahoma City win 60 games again?

Statistical arguments support Oklahoma City's aspirations. The team finished the previous season as the top seed in the West and the leader in the NBA in point differential, even though Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Hartenstein, and Mitchell collectively missed 123 games due to injury.

A season with fewer physical issues, particularly for Williams, could allow the Thunder to regain an even more complete version. If coupled with the progression of the young players, the team will have options to surpass 60 victories again and remain among the title contenders.

However, the margin for error could be smaller than in previous seasons. The departures of Dort, Joe, and Wiggins reduce specific rotation options, while the Spurs represent a direct threat that Oklahoma City cannot ignore.

The question is not whether the Thunder have enough talent to compete for the championship. Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Holmgren, and Hartenstein constitute a top-level foundation. The question lies in how the team will respond when faced with a playoff series where their main strengths encounter opposition capable of neutralizing them.

Forecast: Oklahoma City has the arguments to remain among the top candidates for the championship in the 2026/27 season. The continuity of Gilgeous-Alexander as a superstar, the return of their main offensive generators, and an elite defense constitute a solid foundation. However, the development of the second unit and, above all, the ability to compete against the Spurs will be two determining factors in whether the Thunder can complete another season with the Larry O'Brien trophy.