Conclusions after the first NBA week: Title favorites in trouble

The end of October brings with it falling leaves, the first cold nights, Halloween decorations, and a common tradition in the NBA: drawing hasty conclusions after the first week of competition. The issues of the Oklahoma City Thunder, the future of the three-guard experiment of the San Antonio Spurs, or the spectacular start of Ty Jerome are some of the topics that have sparked debate in the beginning of the 2026-27 season.

With the statistics updated through Tuesday's games, journalists Zach Kram and Ben Golliver analyze seven statements about the start of the campaign and assess whether they are overreactions or justified concerns.

1. Miami Heat will finish with their worst record since 2008

Zach Kram: it's not an exaggeration.

The last time Miami finished a season with fewer than 37 wins was in the 2007-08 campaign. That season, the team ended with a record of 15-67 after intentionally losing during the final stretch to secure Derrick Rose in the draft, a goal they ultimately did not achieve.

Simply due to probabilities, the Heat should improve their current performance. According to GeniusIQ tracking, they have had the seventh-worst luck in offensive shooting and the second-worst in defensive shooting. Miami is forcing their opponents to take difficult shots, but those opponents are making 53% of their mid-range shots and 40% of their three-pointers, according to Cleaning the Glass.

However, the team's attack is still stalled even considering their bad luck with shooting. Davion Mitchell is, moreover, the only role player who seems comfortable sharing the court with Giannis Antetokounmpo.

There is still room for the situation to change, but ESPN's Basketball Power Index was forecasting until Wednesday that Miami would finish with 38 wins. This is a reduction from the 46 projected before the season began and just one more than the worst record in franchise history.

Ben Golliver: overreaction.

Antetokounmpo's tenure in Miami has started disastrously. Instead of strengthening the roster after the two-time MVP's trade with a transformative preseason, the Heat lost Norman Powell, who left for the Chicago Bulls as a free agent, and signed Klay Thompson, who at 36 no longer offers the same performance as before.

The team needs another experienced point guard and to improve their shooting accuracy. Antetokounmpo also requires time to mesh with Bam Adebayo.

Despite these difficulties, Golliver believes that coach Erik Spoelstra and his staff deserve considerable leeway. Antetokounmpo's need to have the ball has clashed with the fluid offensive system that Miami used in the 2025-26 season. Moreover, several veterans seem to be taking longer to find their best level.

Spoelstra has achieved positive balances with less talented rosters and could give more prominence to the young players if offensive issues persist.

The recommendation is to wait for the Heat's next trip out West. If the team fails to recover against opponents like the Los Angeles Clippers, Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors, and Utah Jazz, there will be reasons for concern.

At least, Antetokounmpo is performing well in the three losses for Miami. After missing a large part of last season due to injuries, he is averaging 28.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 5 assists.

2. The Thunder have lost their title chances without Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace

Zach Kram: it is not an overreaction.

The injuries to Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace have diminished Oklahoma City's chances of defending their title. The formula that has led the Thunder to success over the past seasons combines the MVP-level offensive performance of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with the best defense in the league.

The absences of Williams and Wallace, combined with Luguentz Dort's departure over the summer, weaken that second pillar.

Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein continue to form an imposing defensive interior duo. Alex Caruso, currently out due to an ankle sprain, remains a key defensive player.

However, Oklahoma City's perimeter rotation has fallen short and presents too many defensive concerns. Therefore, Kram finds it difficult for the team to win the title again unless some of the injured starters return before the playoffs or the franchise makes a significant trade during the season.

Ben Golliver: exaggerated reaction from an emotional standpoint.

On Monday, it seemed like the world was falling apart when the Thunder's general manager, Sam Presti, announced that Williams and Wallace would be out for an indefinite period due to their respective injuries. The team is thus facing the worst possible scenario at the start of their title defense.

Between those two injuries and the departures of Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe during the preseason, Oklahoma City has lost five of its six players with the most minutes played during the 2024-25 season, in which they won the championship.

Nevertheless, the Thunder retain a lot of talent around Gilgeous-Alexander and have started the season at an extraordinary level. Monday's victory against Phoenix demonstrated their ability to respond.

Additionally, last season they were just one win away from reaching the Finals, despite Williams suffering physical issues during the regular season and the playoffs.

Presti has draft picks and tradable contracts to bring in temporary reinforcements before the trade deadline. He also has a solid roster ready for the future. For all these reasons, Golliver warns that underestimating Oklahoma City would be a grave mistake.

3. Ty Jerome will be an All-Star

Ben Golliver: exaggerated reaction.

Jerome is in position to have the best season of his career after overcoming numerous obstacles, but Golliver considers it premature to claim he will be chosen for the All-Star.

The initial schedule of the Memphis Grizzlies has been particularly affordable. Utah seems to allow any opposing guard to reach 30 points, while the injuries of the Warriors and the general issues of the Kings make it difficult for Memphis to achieve quality wins.

Jerome is a talented scorer who has earned the opportunity to take on the starting point guard position. However, Golliver prefers to wait a few weeks before assessing his All-Star options.

In his favor is the departure of LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard from the Western Conference over the summer, which leaves more spots available for the All-Star game.

Zach Kram: it's not an overreaction.

Jerome was not an All-Star last season because he only played 15 games. However, Kram argues that he has been delivering a star-caliber offensive performance for some time now, even though he barely received recognition until he started averaging 30 points.

As proof, he points out that Jerome finished the 2025-26 season third in the NBA's offensive plus-minus rating, a ranking where he was only behind Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Ahead of Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, Victor Wembanyama, Stephen Curry, Jamal Murray, and Donovan Mitchell.

For Kram, these numbers support the possibility that Jerome will finally make the leap and secure his first All-Star selection.

4. The Warriors are finished, regardless of Jimmy Butler's return

Ben Golliver: it is not an exaggeration.

Golden State secured its first victory of the season on Monday, but the balance of its first week has been disappointing.

The absences of Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis, and other players due to injuries or discomfort have forced the team to resort to emergency solutions. In a game played on Saturday against Phoenix, the Warriors kept Stephen Curry on the bench due to it being a consecutive game and presented a starting lineup consisting of Yaxel Lendeborg, Brandon Williams, Will Richard, Gui Santos, and Graham Ike.

This is a lineup that would have prompted Charles Barkley to ask: “Who are they playing for?”. Among all its members, their salaries for this season do not reach 20 million dollars.

Meanwhile, Butler, with a salary of 56 million, and Porzingis, who earns 19.5 million, are sidelined. For Golliver, Golden State cannot overcome a situation of this nature.

Zach Kram: it is not an exaggeration.

Kram agrees with his colleague and states that he is not surprised by the Warriors' start. Even before the season began, he already considered it could be a lost year due to physical issues and the absence of key reinforcements during the summer, with the exception of Lendeborg, who is delivering an extraordinary performance as a rookie.

Golden State may be able to stay in the fight for a spot in the play-in, especially since the Western Conference seems less competitive than usual. Utah could also find itself in trouble if Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. remain out for an extended period.

However, Kram believes that the Warriors' main goal should be to lay the groundwork for greater success in the 2027-28 season.

5. The Spurs will abandon their starting lineup with three point guards before Thanksgiving

Zach Kram: overreaction.

Kram believes that too much importance is placed on discussions about starting lineups, especially since coaches constantly adjust rotations during games.

The trio of De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, and Stephon Castle has shared the court for only 43 minutes in the first four games of the season. Moreover, while it is still early to draw definitive conclusions from the net efficiency rating, the results of that lineup have been positive.

According to databallr, the Spurs have a +15.4 rating with the three point guards on the floor. Therefore, if the coaching staff believes there are intangible reasons to keep them together in the starting lineup, there is still no evidence that it is a bad decision.

Ben Golliver: overreaction.

The San Antonio coach, Mitch Johnson, may face a debate that could last for months. The main question will be whether Fox, Harper, or both should be part of the starting lineup.

However, Johnson could also buy time to facilitate the adjustment of the backcourt duo through other changes in the lineup. One possibility would be to substitute Devin Vassell for Tobias Harris or Julian Champagnie.

Considering Fox's high salary and Harper's potential, Golliver believes that the Spurs should explore all options before relegating one of the two guards to the bench.

6. The Knicks will not make it past the first round of the playoffs

Zach Kram: overreaction.

Before the season started, Kram had already predicted that the New York Knicks would win fewer regular-season games than last year. Therefore, their negative record at the start of this campaign does not surprise him, especially due to the difficulty of their schedule.

The team's main problem lies on offense, where they rank twenty-fifth. However, the journalist expects a quick improvement.

According to Cleaning the Glass, the Knicks sit at the bottom of the league in mid-range shooting accuracy, with 30%. The difference from last season is significant, as they finished fifth in this statistic then with 45%, virtually with the same roster.

Heading into the playoffs, Kram believes it is still necessary to observe a much larger sample of difficulties before concluding that New York will not be favored in any playoff matchups in the Eastern Conference.

The competition will be tougher this season, but the Knicks have already shown their ability to compete in the playoffs.

Ben Golliver: it is not an overreaction.

Golliver bases his evaluation more on feelings than on statistics. As is often the case with defending champions, the Knicks have had a tough start, facing numerous top-tier opponents.

Their initial record of one win and three losses is not, by itself, a cause for alarm. New York competed against title contenders like the 76ers and the Celtics last week and achieved their first loss of the season against the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday.

However, the inability to close those close games reminded everyone how fortunate the Knicks were during the 2026 playoffs.

Jalen Brunson seemed to make every crucial shot the team needed. And the only time he missed, OG Anunoby stepped up to hit the game-winning shot.

The Knicks managed to escape defeat on several occasions thanks to their comebacks in the second halves. For Golliver, it is hard to believe that formula can be maintained now that New York has become the team that everyone wants to beat.

Owner James Dolan has also conveyed the impression of being satisfied with the championship ring won, rather than showing an urgent need to acquire another.

In recent years, the wear and tear of trying to win two consecutive championships has affected teams younger than the Knicks. For this reason, Golliver would not rule out New York running out of energy or suffering injuries that could disrupt their season before May.

7. Walker Kessler should be part of the U.S. selection for the 2028 Olympic Games

Ben Golliver: it's not an exaggeration.

Before the season began, the Lakers argued that it was worth paying a high price in draft picks to acquire Walker Kessler in their trade with Utah over the summer.

The reason is the difficulty of finding centers his age, 25, who can finish plays on offense and effectively protect the paint on defense.

Golliver believes that Grant Hill, Erik Spoelstra, and the U.S. selection should consider him for the Los Angeles 2028 Olympics. The need to seek interior players with those characteristics could increase if Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, and LeBron James decide not to return after winning gold in Paris.

Bam Adebayo, Chet Holmgren, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Evan Mobley could also be in the pool of candidates. However, Kessler brings a wingspan and physical strength that, according to Golliver, those players do not possess.

In light of the threat posed by Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic, the journalist wonders if the United States might need a traditional center to maintain its international dominance.

Zach Kram: overreaction.

Kram uses the same argument that Golliver had employed to question Ty Jerome’s strong start: the difficulty of the early schedule.

Kessler’s two major games so far came against Warriors who were missing their starting center and Clippers who used Isaiah Jackson in that position. For Kram, neither of those opponents represents a comparable test to facing Wembanyama or Jokic.

Kessler does have international experience. He was a backup on the U.S. team that failed to qualify for the 2023 World Cup.

Kram believes that the center will likely be on the preliminary list of candidates to represent the United States in 2028, but he will need to prove much more before taking a prominent position in the hierarchy of interior players on the team.

This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Conclusiones tras la primera semana NBA: Favoritos al anillo, en apuros