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The keys for the Milwaukee Bucks to achieve a comeback that Doc Rivers continues to dream about
The Indiana Pacers have dominated the first two games at home and have left the series heavily in their favor, although Giannis Antetokounmpo and company will not give up easily.
The Milwaukee Bucks are looking to avoid being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs for the third consecutive season. They are down 2-0 against the Indiana Pacers, and the series is heading to Milwaukee for the third game on Friday night.
"We've had two bad starts, and we have to make an adjustment there, for sure," said Doc Rivers through Eric Nehm of The Athletic. "We'll see. We have time. I'm not going to tell you what I'm doing right now. We'll figure it out; I have a lot of confidence in this series. A lot."
The issue at hand is this: only 34 teams in NBA history have come back from a 2-0 series deficit. However, seven teams have accomplished the feat this century. The Pacers are the most recent team to do so, defeating the New York Knicks in seven games in last year's Eastern Conference semifinals after dropping the first two games.
Milwaukee won three out of the four games against Indiana during the regular season. However, the Bucks have been outscored 240-213 in the first two playoff games. Defense is a significant issue for Milwaukee, allowing 120 points per game with a 50.3% shooting percentage and 29 three-pointers at 41.5%. The Bucks couldn't count on Damian Lillard in the first game, although he appears to be completely healthy as he is not listed on the team's injury report.
Part of Milwaukee's struggles against Indiana is that the Bucks have had slow starts in each half. The Bucks have been outscored by a combined 18 points in the first quarter and were down by four in the third quarter of the second game.
"We don't want to dig ourselves a hole at the beginning of the game," said Giannis Antetokounmpo to reporters. "I think we've done it in two games. We did it in the third quarter too. It's hard to play from behind. We just have to be smarter in the way we play, be more urgent when we start the game; hopefully, we can set the tone and not them."
Kyle Kuzma, Taurean Prince, and Brook Lopez have encountered significant problems during the first two games. Rivers has already made a lineup change, swapping Ryan Rollins for Lillard in the second game.
There are likely a couple of reasons why Rivers has faith in the Bucks. The Bucks have a lot of experience and haven't played good basketball in the first two games. The Bucks perform better at home than on the road; they had success against the Pacers during the regular season.
In the first two games of the series against the Pacers, Milwaukee has shot 46.2% from the field and made 11.5 three-pointers, shooting at a 31.1% rate. Throughout the season, Milwaukee averages over six more points at home than on the road, as they make nearly 50% of their shots, including 15 triples at a 40% rate.
It's not surprising that Milwaukee had a slow start in the first two games. The Bucks have been outscored by 1.1 points in the first quarter all season as visitors. In contrast, the Bucks are +2.4 points in the first quarter at home during the first 12 minutes.
Additionally, Antetokounmpo has been outstanding in the first two games, although he has had issues at the free-throw line. Antetokounmpo is averaging 35 points, 15 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1.5 blocks while shooting 65.1% from the field.
Bobby Portis has also performed very well in the first two games. Portis is averaging a double-double with 16 points, 10 rebounds, and three three-pointers at a 40% rate.
So far, Rivers has given minutes to 12 players during the postseason. However, only eight players have seen time in both games. Antetokounmpo, Kuzma, Prince, Lillard, and Lopez started in the 123-115 loss in the second game. All except Lillard have started in both games. The Bucks' starters have been outscored by 27 points, while their bench has played even.
Antetokounmpo, Kuzma, Prince, Lillard, and Lopez's starting lineup is the second most used by Rivers this year. The Bucks have an 8-7 record in the 15 games where these five have started together, as they had an 8-6 record during the regular season.
So, why has the Bucks' starting five (12th in the league) had so many problems in the first two games? Matchups are the primary reason. Lopez has been limited to 37 minutes in the series as he doesn't match up well with Myles Turner.
Milwaukee's biggest issue is on the perimeter. Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhart are too quick for Lillard and Prince. Of course, Lillard isn't known for his defense anyway. Additionally, Kuzma also struggles defensively.
Potential Solutions for the Milwaukee Bucks
It's not expected that Rivers will remove Lopez from the starting unit, although that makes some sense. If he does, Portis would slot into the five. Portis, who brings a lot of energy, has been much more productive as a starter this year and throughout his career.
If Rivers inserts Portis into the starting five, it's most likely that Portis would replace Kuzma, not Lopez. By subbing Kuzma for Portis, the Bucks would have a stronger defensive frontcourt with a lot of length. Additionally, with Portis playing well and Kuzma not, it should also kick-start the Bucks' offense. Portis and Antetokounmpo can defend the three-point line.
Replacing Kuzma or Prince in the starting lineup is the most logical move for Rivers. If he does that, he has several options. He could insert Gary Trent Jr. or AJ Green for those two. Trent and Green undoubtedly give the Bucks shooters to space the floor, thus giving Lillard and Antetokounmpo more room to operate.
It's not a given that Rivers will substitute multiple starters. Rivers could decide to insert Trent or Kevin Porter Jr. for Prince or Kuzma. If that happens, Trent or Porter would play the two and likely be tasked with matching up against Haliburton, leaving Lillard to guard Nesmith. Prince or Kuzma would then be tasked with defending Aaron Nesmith.
Rivers could keep Trent and Porter on the bench, as they are vital pieces of the Bucks' second unit. Alternatively, Rivers could start Andre Jackson Jr.. Jackson has only seen a minute of action in the series so far. However, the 23-year-old has started for 43 of his 67 games this year and played 60 minutes in five playoff games last season.
If Jackson plays with the starters, the Bucks would lose some offensive production. But Jackson has the physical attributes and defensive IQ to disrupt the Pacers' offense. If Jackson starts, he likely won't play many minutes. He averaged 17 minutes throughout the regular season in games where he started, including two games where he played less than 10 minutes. The Bucks had a 25-18 record with Jackson as a starter.
This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Las claves para que los Milwaukee Bucks consigan una remontada con la que Doc Rivers sigue soñando