We analyze the decisive fifth game between Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets

After the Oklahoma City Thunder suffered two collapses in the last quarter in games 1 and 3 against the Denver Nuggets, they bounced back with a comeback in the fourth quarter of Game 4. The Thunder did what they had to do, tying the series 2-2 and heading back to Oklahoma. This series is now best of three games, and the first team to win two games will advance to the Western Conference Finals.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander improved in the final quarter, scoring nine points compared to three in the third game, but still needs to step up for the future. However, the Thunder didn't win this game without the three-point shots from Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, and Aaron Wiggins in the second half. Now the Thunder are heading to a crucial Game 5 in Oklahoma.

This is the same situation the Thunder faced a year ago against the Dallas Mavericks. In that series, the Thunder lost a decisive fifth game and then lost the sixth game, getting eliminated. This year, the Thunder were a dominant team in the regular season, winning 68 games, earning them the right to be called title favorites in the postseason. However, some questioned if they could win it with their playoff inexperience.

The Thunder have regained the advantage of playing at home, as they did a year ago. Last year, the Thunder were even more inexperienced and couldn't win a decisive fifth game against the Mavericks. Although the Thunder won 57 games and clinched the top seed, people questioned their legitimacy as contenders. Last year, everyone was right: they were too young. This year, they won 68 games and secured the top spot, and even though they were title favorites, people still questioned their legitimacy due to their lack of experience. If they lose the fifth game, it will be because they are too young and weren’t ready for the moment.

However, even if they lose the fifth game, the series won't be over; they will have to move on to a possible series-deciding game against a more experienced team. This is a situation the Thunder don't want to be in, as teams leading 3-2 win 83.9% of the time. Most likely, a loss in the fifth game would mean another disappointing playoff exit for the second consecutive year. If this happens, Oklahoma might make some significant moves since they have the resources to help this team overcome the hurdle.

The difference between this series and last year's against the Mavericks is that the Thunder have had control of all four games. This should give Thunder fans more optimism heading into the fifth game compared to last year. If the Thunder win the fifth game and take a 3-2 series lead, as mentioned before, the series is not over, but they are now on the right side of history. Denver has won a championship before, and they have that pedigree, so winning a crucial game against that team would do wonders for this young Thunder team. They would be the team we thought they were in the regular season, a championship-worthy team.

Key Points of Game 5 between OKC and Denver

Not only would a win in Game 5 give OKC confidence and a good chance to advance to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2016. It will also help them progress in other series and be better prepared for a potential NBA Finals series. This is exactly why the Thunder wanted to face a team like the Denver Nuggets because they knew it would bring out the best in them. Additionally, beating a team that has won a championship can be the spark that a young team needs to reach the Finals.

Now that we have laid out what a loss and a win in the fifth game would mean for this Thunder team, the question remains: how do the Thunder win this crucial game? The answer boils down to three simple things. The first is continuing to limit Nikola Jokic. The Thunder have done a great job limiting Jokic in three of the four games so far and must keep it up in the fifth game. If Jokic starts hitting shots as he is capable of, it opens up more options for the Nuggets' offense, including their playmaking, which the Thunder have completely neutralized at this point.

Next, the Thunder must hit their open threes. The Nuggets have been applying a lot of zone defense on the Thunder, which has somewhat stalled the Thunder on offense. The best way to take a team out of a zone is by making your shots, which the Thunder did in the second game and took the Nuggets off balance. Lastly, Gilgeous-Alexander must perform like an MVP. Shai has struggled with his efficiency up to this point, and this cannot continue if the Thunder want to win this series and others in the future. Shai has to do a better job closing out games in the fourth quarter and will have to make contested tough shots, something he's no stranger to doing.

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