The key for the NBA 2025/26 market to start moving

NBA Market: Giannis Antetokounmpo is the first domino that must fall. So far, the Greek has not met with the management —and probably also with the ownership— of the Milwaukee Bucks to make a decision about his future. Until that happens, the rest of the market remains on hold, and players like Kevin Durant will have to wait before moving.

This was explained by Marc Stein in his latest Substack column: “The expectation is that Durant will end up on the trade market during this postseason, but that probably won't happen until there is clarity on whether Giannis Antetokounmpo will stay in Milwaukee or seek a trade.”

The logic is clear. Teams that could be interested in acquiring Kevin Durant, at 37 years old, would prefer to target Antetokounmpo first, who at 30 is still at his peak. That is why many franchises are waiting for the Greek's decision before moving in another direction.

If winning is his priority, he could push for a trade to teams like Houston or San Antonio, where he would immediately elevate the franchise to contender status. Furthermore, both organizations have the human capital and draft assets to make an appealing offer. However, this would involve moving to the stacked Western Conference.

And that West is full of obstacles. An eventual Rockets team with Antetokounmpo would have to face a Thunder team that won 68 games and remains intact, Nikola Jokic and a deeper Nuggets team, Luka Doncic and possibly a reinforced LeBron James in Los Angeles, Stephen Curry alongside Jimmy Butler in Golden State, a Timberwolves team that reached two consecutive Western Finals with a rising Anthony Edwards, not to mention Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs, Ja Morant with the Grizzlies, James Harden with the Clippers, and the list goes on.

Facing that landscape, Antetokounmpo might lean towards staying in the East. Especially considering that Boston will face much of the next season without Jayson Tatum. But even if he goes to the East —to Brooklyn, New York, Toronto, Cleveland, or another team—, the trade price would strip his new team of key pieces. He would end up in a situation similar to what he already experiences in Milwaukee: a superstar in search of a ring, but surrounded by an insufficient roster.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, La clave para que el mercado NBA 2025/26 comience a moverse