This is what the NBA Lottery 2027 would look like according to ESPN's predictions
We explain how the new rule that will establish Lottery positions in the Draft will be applied, based on projected rankings from ESPN forecasts.
ESPN's predictions for the NBA 2026/27 allow for a first simulation of the new NBA Lottery that will come into effect with the 2027 Draft. The 3-2-1 Lottery will distribute draft options among 16 franchises and reduce the advantages of finishing in the bottom three positions.
The reform introduces a profound change in the way tanking is understood in the NBA. Until now, deliberately finishing at the bottom of the standings offered the best odds of obtaining the number 1 pick. Starting in 2027, something quite different will happen: teams finishing between the fourth and tenth worst records will have an 8.1% chance of getting the first pick, while the bottom three will only have a 5.4% chance. Applying ESPN's projections, the results leave some truly striking scenarios.
The Pelicans could have two very valuable opportunities
ESPN's simulation places the New Orleans Pelicans with an 8.1% chance of obtaining the number 1 pick thanks to their own pick, even though ESPN projects them with the second-worst record in the West, at 25-57. Here appears one of the peculiarities of the new lottery: the odds also depend on who owns each pick, not exclusively on which team has the worst record.
Additionally, the Pelicans would have another 5.4% opportunity through the pick coming from Milwaukee. The Bucks are projected with 25 wins, but their pick would end up in New Orleans' hands.
They would also have an 8.1% chance with the Grizzlies, Wizards, Bulls, Mavericks, Hornets, and the Clippers pick belonging to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
This last case is particularly interesting: the Clippers are projected as the eleventh-worst team according to ESPN, but their pick is in Oklahoma City's hands. Therefore, the Thunder could have an 8.1% chance to secure the number 1 pick despite being the clear favorite in the West.
The new system penalizes the worst teams
Here lies the great revolution. The three teams that finish with the worst records will be considered "draft relegated" and will receive only two balls, equivalent to a 5.4% chance of selecting first.
With ESPN's predictions, the picks of Rockets via Nets, Kings, and Pelicans via Bucks would enter that group and also have a 5.4% chance.
Additionally, the Pacers, Magic, Warriors, and Grizzlies via Jazz would also have a 5.4% chance.
On the opposite end are Rockets via Suns and Raptors, with only a 2.7% chance. This corresponds to the level of one ball and reflects how the new Lottery increasingly rewards teams that are closer to the Play-In zone.
A radical change for tanking
The big conclusion is clear: being the worst team will no longer be the best strategy to secure the number 1 pick.
The NBA has designed the system so that 16 picks are drawn and the three worst franchises cannot fall beyond the number 12. The declared goal is to reduce the incentives for deliberately losing.
ESPN's predictions perfectly illustrate the desired effect. A franchise finishing tenth from the bottom can have exactly the same 8.1% chance for the number 1 as another finishing fourth. This may lead some organizations to prefer to compete to avoid the last rung instead of diving directly into tanking.
It also increases the importance of traded picks. Oklahoma City, Houston, New Orleans, or Memphis could greatly benefit from poor seasons of other franchises.
The 2027 Lottery will thus be much more unpredictable. The new system does not eliminate rebuilding or guarantee that teams will stop deliberately losing games, but it radically changes the incentive: finishing last no longer virtually ensures anything. And ESPN's projections offer a first glimpse of how chaotic the battle for the top spots in the Draft can be.
This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Así quedaría la Lottery NBA 2027 según las predicciones de ESPN
