Here is the surprising NBA 2027 Tier List prepared by ESPN

ESPN has divided the 30 NBA franchises into different tiers for the 2026-27 season, and their ranking leaves several striking conclusions. The Knicks, Thunder, and Spurs appear as the three major favorites for the championship, while teams like Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks are relegated to the group of potential Play-In participants, a consideration particularly pessimistic given the talent of their rosters.

The ranking reflects an NBA marked by great parity, but also by the difference between having the means to compete for 82 games and having a project prepared to win four playoff rounds. ESPN places Denver, Houston, Lakers, and Minnesota on a second tier in the West, while Boston, Cleveland, and Detroit are viewed as true winning machines in the regular season. Behind them are several teams with potential to surprise, including Philadelphia, Miami, Toronto, and Indiana.

Knicks, Thunder, and Spurs are the favorites

The first tier has only three members: New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, and San Antonio Spurs. It’s no coincidence that these three teams went far in the last playoffs and have retained much of their core.

The Knicks enter as champions and keep the core that allowed them to win the title, while Oklahoma City still counts on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as their main reference after a season in which he proved once again that he is one of the best players in the NBA.

San Antonio represents the project with the greatest potential. Victor Wembanyama enters his third season as a potentially dominant superstar, and the Spurs have shown they can already compete for the championship. In fact, other recent evaluations also place San Antonio and Oklahoma City at the top of the West.

Denver, Houston, Lakers, and Minnesota are just a step away

ESPN places Nuggets, Rockets, Lakers, and Timberwolves in the category of "defective West contenders." The label is important: it doesn't mean any of them can't win the championship, but that all have some significant weakness preventing them from being considered absolute favorites.

The Lakers rely heavily on the performance of Luka Doncic, while Denver continues around Nikola Jokic with questions about depth and balance. Houston has built an increasingly competitive roster, and Minnesota has made aggressive moves around Anthony Edwards, but none seem to have the margin for error of the three teams at the top.

Boston, Cleveland, and Detroit: winning machines

One of the most interesting tiers is made up of Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Detroit Pistons. ESPN does not place them among the top favorites, but does believe they have the capacity to accumulate wins during the regular season.

Detroit's case is particularly striking. The Pistons come off a 60-win season and have a young core led by Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren. The big question is whether this ability to dominate the regular season will finally translate to the playoffs.

Cleveland and Boston present a similar situation: they are teams complete enough to win many nights, but there are doubts about their ceiling when the most demanding part of the season arrives.

Pacers, Heat, Sixers, and Raptors: high ceiling candidates

The next group consists of Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, and Toronto Raptors, defined as Finals candidates with particularly high potential.

Philadelphia is probably the most surprising name. The arrival of LeBron James to accompany Joel Embiid, Jaylen Brown, and Tyrese Maxey turns the Sixers into one of the most talented teams in the league, although the health of their main stars will be crucial.

Toronto also deserves attention after incorporating Kawhi Leonard. The Raptors already had a young core around Scottie Barnes and can now accelerate their competitive aspirations.

Warriors and Mavericks, too far down

The big news for many fans lies further down. Golden State and Dallas are in the group of potential Play-In participants, sharing the level with Charlotte, Memphis, New Orleans, Phoenix, Portland, Utah, and Washington.

The valuation of the Warriors is surprising because they still have Stephen Curry, although the age of the point guard and the physical condition of Jimmy Butler raise doubts about their ability to compete throughout the season. Curry will have to sustain much of the offensive production while Golden State hopes to recover Butler during the course.

The case of Dallas is even more striking. Cooper Flagg, the number 1 pick from the last Draft, could become a star from his first year, and the return of Kyrie Irving offers a considerably higher ceiling. However, the combination of youth, physical uncertainty, and lack of experience in the new project explains why ESPN does not yet consider them real Finals candidates.

Kings, Bulls, Nets, Clippers, and Bucks noted

At the bottom appear Chicago and Sacramento as non-competitive teams that retain their own pick, while Brooklyn, Clippers, and Milwaukee are at the last tier for not controlling their own pick.

The situation of the Clippers is especially delicate after the consequences of the case related to Kawhi Leonard, which has considerably reduced their Draft assets. Precisely for that reason, the franchise needs to recover assets and could become one of the major sellers in the market during the season.

ESPN’s Tier List ultimately leaves a much more interesting snapshot than a simple ranking. Knicks, Thunder, and Spurs come with the label of favorites; Lakers, Nuggets, Rockets, and Timberwolves need to resolve their defects; and Warriors and Mavericks are obliged to prove that ESPN was wrong. In such an even NBA, the difference between ending in the Play-In and competing for the championship may be much smaller than this ranking suggests, but both will have to prove it on the court.

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