The NBA expansion enters its decisive phase: key points and questions to resolve

The NBA continues moving towards a possible expansion to 32 teams, with Las Vegas and Seattle as the two cities earmarked to join the competition. The league aims to make a decision before the end of 2026, although there are still significant issues to resolve, especially concerning the facilities, ownership groups, and the cost of new franchises.

The process has taken a new step after the interested groups seeking a franchise in Las Vegas submitted their bids before September 17. However, Commissioner Adam Silver has clarified that this date does not represent the final round of proposals. The NBA continues to evaluate the different options and has not yet given final approval for either city.

Las Vegas and Seattle progress at different paces

As Mike Vorkunov explains in The Athletic, the NBA is following different strategies with Las Vegas and Seattle. The city in the state of Nevada has several interested groups, leading the league to set more than one deadline for proposals. Seattle, on the other hand, presents a simpler scenario, with a main group identified and an arena ready to host a franchise.

This difference could cause Las Vegas to choose its ownership group before the NBA concludes the process in Seattle. However, the league has not yet confirmed that it will follow that order.

The interest in Las Vegas is particularly high due to its economic and tourist potential. The NBA believes that the city offers the possibility to build an entertainment project that generates year-round activity. The main issue is deciding where the team would play and whether a new arena would need to be constructed.

The arena: the major obstacle in Las Vegas

The T-Mobile Arena, current home of the NHL's Vegas Golden Knights, is one of the options on the table. Its owner, Bill Foley, has acknowledged that the venue would need significant renovations to accommodate an NBA franchise.

Another alternative would be for the winning group to build a new arena, accompanied by an entertainment and leisure area around it. This option would provide greater long-term business opportunities, but it would also extend the project's preparation timeline.

Adam Silver has acknowledged that there are different viable locations in Las Vegas and that it's still premature to choose one. The league considers the 2028-29 season as a possible start date for the expansion, although issues related to the venue could influence the final timeline.

Seattle has an advantage in this regard. The Climate Pledge Arena, where the Seattle Kraken play, is already a modern and operational facility. The NBA believes that the arena could be ready to host a league game in a very short time, although some modifications would be necessary.

The interested groups for the new franchises

In Seattle, Samantha Holloway, owner of the Kraken, is the most visible candidate. She has publicly expressed her desire to bring back the SuperSonics and has reorganized her business structures to prepare a possible NBA bid.

A group formed by BlackSun Private Equity and the Tulalip tribes has also emerged, although its project raises more doubts, especially regarding the proposed location for the arena and access difficulties from downtown Seattle.

Las Vegas, on the other hand, has much broader competition. Among the groups in the running are the one led by Nancy Walton Laurie and Bill Laurie, Bill Foley’s project, and the Las Vegas Jacks, who have Jerry Colangelo and Vinny Del Negro as basketball-connected representatives. There is also at least one other group whose identity has not yet been made public.

Josh Kushner and Bob Iger, who had previously appeared among the interested parties, dropped out of the race after acquiring the Los Angeles Lakers.

How much will an NBA franchise cost?

The league aims to obtain between $7 billion and $10 billion per new franchise, although the final amounts could differ between the two cities.

Las Vegas is the candidate expected to generate the highest economic figure. According to estimates gathered by The Athletic, its price could reach $9 billion or even exceed that amount, not including the money the owner would have to invest in a new arena.

Seattle, despite having a significant television market and a larger population, could reach a lower figure. The absence of such broad competition among ownership groups might turn its process into a more direct negotiation between the NBA and Holloway's project. Additionally, a group that does not secure the Las Vegas franchise might decide to shift its bid to the Seattle market.

The recent sale of the Portland Trail Blazers for $4.25 billion serves as a reference, although Seattle has a superior media market and metropolitan population.

The decision must come before the end of 2026

The NBA maintains its goal of resolving the future of expansion before the year ends. Adam Silver has insisted that the league is making progress, but there is still no final approval for Las Vegas or Seattle.

Thus, the path towards 32 franchises seems increasingly advanced, although it is not completely sealed. Decisions regarding ownership, arenas, and financial amounts will be decisive in determining whether both cities debut in the 2028-29 season and if they do so at the same time. What is clear is that the NBA has already entered a decisive phase of a process that could completely change the landscape of the competition.

This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, La expansión de la NBA entra en su fase decisiva: claves e incógnitas a resolver