We analyze the decisive fifth game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets

After the Oklahoma City Thunder suffered two collapses in the last quarter in games 1 and 3 against the Denver Nuggets, they bounced back with a comeback in the fourth quarter of Game 4. The Thunder did what they had to do, tying the series 2-2 and returning to Oklahoma. This series is now a best-of-three games, and the first team to win two games will advance to the Western Conference Finals.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander improved in the last quarter, scoring nine points compared to three in the third game, but he still needs to improve for the future. However, the Thunder did not win this game without the three-point shots from Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, and Aaron Wiggins in the second half. Now the Thunder are heading to a crucial and necessary fifth game in Oklahoma.

This is the same situation the Thunder were in a year ago against the Dallas Mavericks. In that series, the Thunder lost a decisive fifth game and then lost the sixth, getting eliminated. This year, the Thunder were a dominant team in the regular season, winning 68 games, earning them the designation as title favorites heading into the postseason. However, some wondered if they could win it with their playoff inexperience.

The Thunder have again secured the advantage of playing at home, as they did a year ago. Last year, the Thunder were even more inexperienced and could not win a deciding fifth game against the Mavericks. Although the Thunder won 57 games and claimed the top spot, people questioned their legitimacy as contenders. Last year, everyone was right: they were too young. This year, they won 68 games and clinched the top seed, and even though they were title favorites, people still questioned their legitimacy due to their lack of experience. If they lose the fifth game, it will be because they are too young and were not ready for the moment.

However, even if they lose the fifth game, the series will not be over; they will have to travel to a potential do-or-die game against a more experienced team than theirs. This is a situation the Thunder do not want to be in because teams that go up 3-2 win 83.9% of the time. Most likely, a loss in the fifth game would mean another disappointing playoff exit for the second consecutive year. If this happens, Oklahoma could make some significant moves, as they have the resources to help this team overcome the hurdle.

The difference between this series and last year's against the Mavericks is that the Thunder have had control in all four games. This should give Thunder fans more optimism heading into the fifth game compared to last year. If the Thunder win the fifth game and take a 3-2 series lead, as mentioned before, the series is not over, but now they are on the right side of history. Denver has won a championship before, and they have that pedigree, and winning a crucial game against that team will do a lot for this young Thunder team. They would be the team we thought they were in the regular season, a championship-worthy team.

The Keys to Game 5 between OKC and Denver

Not only would a victory in Game 5 give OKC confidence and a good chance to advance to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2016. It will also help them progress in other series and be better prepared for a potential NBA Finals series. This is precisely why the Thunder wanted to play against a team like the Denver Nuggets because they knew it would bring out the best in them. Moreover, defeating a team that has won a championship can be the spark a young team needs to reach the Finals.

Now that we have laid out what a loss and a win in the fifth game would mean for this Thunder team, the question is: how do the Thunder win this crucial game? The answer comes down to three simple things. The first is they must continue to limit Nikola Jokic. The Thunder have done a great job limiting Jokic in three of the four games so far and must continue to do so in the fifth game. If Jokic starts hitting shots as he is capable of, it opens up more options for the Nuggets' offense, including their playmaking, which the Thunder have completely neutralized at this point.

Next, the Thunder must make their open three-pointers. The Nuggets have been applying a lot of zone defense on the Thunder, and this has caused the Thunder's offense to stall a bit. The best way to get a team out of a zone is by making your shots, which the Thunder did in the second game and took the Nuggets off balance. Finally, Gilgeous-Alexander must perform like an MVP. Shai has struggled with his efficiency up to this point, and this cannot continue if the Thunder want to win this series and others in the future. Shai has to do a better job of closing out games in the fourth quarter and will have to make contested difficult shots, something he is no stranger to doing.

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