The problem that the Oklahoma City Thunder could face in the 2025/26 season

Chet Holmgren has become an essential piece in the Oklahoma City Thunder project. The young center, just 23 years old, has not missed a single game since overcoming the hip injury that kept him out last season, but his physique continues to be a topic of debate in the NBA. Compared to other centers in the league, his wingspan and slim build fuel the idea that he may suffer another injury sooner or later.

The Thunder enters the 2025/26 season as defending champions, starting with their full squad from the beginning, a scenario that had not occurred until now. In this context, Holmgren's health will be one of the major talking points: while he has shown remarkable recovery ability, a history of two injuries in just three years of his career raises questions about whether he can sustain his performance in the long term.

He had already raised concerns early on. His fracture in the 2022 Pro-Am and missing 50 games last season contrast with the durability he showed in his rookie year when he played all 82 games, a feat even Victor Wembanyama couldn't achieve in his rookie season. That endurance, coupled with his immense talent, had positioned him as the natural heir to the "unicorn" archetype that he displayed at Gonzaga, where he averaged 14.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 3.7 blocks with a 60.7% field goal percentage in his lone college season.

Nevertheless, the NBA is filled with precedents that inspire optimism. Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Blake Griffin missed their rookie years but eventually became key players. Two of them, specifically big men, demonstrated that it is possible to overcome initial physical setbacks and evolve into stars. Holmgren, who already made an impact in the 2025 Finals and secured a lucrative deal with OKC, seems determined to follow that path.

Holmgren's Potential Issue

One of the recurring debates revolves around his physical constitution and the need, or lack of it, to gain muscle mass. The parallel with Giannis Antetokounmpo is inevitable: the Greek was also criticized for his slim build upon entering the league but transformed his body over time into an unstoppable force. However, the case of Kristaps Porzingis serves as a reminder that a similar physique can be prone to frequent injuries. Instances like Yao Ming, who despite physical issues was an All-Star throughout his career, show that durability does not always depend on added weight.

The fact remains that Holmgren has proven to be more resilient than many believe. Before the hip injury, he averaged 18.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 3 blocks with a 52% field goal percentage, 40% from three-point range, and 81% from the free-throw line—All-Star caliber numbers and a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year award. His defensive impact was undeniable: opponents converted only 16% of attempts in the paint against him. Upon his return, his ability to intimidate while stretching the floor remained intact.

His slight build, far from being a weakness, enhances his agility and shooting range. Unlike other players whose efficiency decreased with added mass, like Russell Westbrook with his outside shooting, Holmgren has turned his physique into a tactical advantage: he can draw rival centers out of the paint, attack off the dribble, and create space for stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Jalen Williams.

With all this, his potential remains extremely high. If he stays healthy, projecting him as an All-Star in the 2025/26 season and even as a candidate for major awards would not be far-fetched, especially after being in the MVP conversation last season before his injury layoff. The Thunder understands that much of their immediate future hinges on keeping Holmgren healthy and that, if successful, they have the perfect prototype of the modern center who could define an era.

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